Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13239

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.472). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13238, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13239
    28 Oct 2026, 17:32 UTC

    ZNF646

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZNF646 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3ca580ae188eb173

    discovery-0.28 p=0.472 n=9

    replication-0.47 p=0.204 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.472)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7321bfe5067b7421a9750c2e…
    follows 6911709162dd…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13239: ZNF646 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.40 (p 0.097, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.08. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.39 (p 0.107, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.48 (p 0.044, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.40 (p 0.097, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZNF646 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.