Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13237

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.407). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13236, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13237
    28 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC

    MAT2A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMAT2A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede16646cf00f6b8ad

    discovery+0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    replication+0.40 p=0.292 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.407)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e5d47af0f4a8e473437ce3dd…
    follows 653691d44482…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13237: MAT2A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.38 (p 0.118, n 18), 95% CI -0.10 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.38 (p 0.125, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.40 (p 0.099, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.30 to +0.56, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAT2A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.