Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13235

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.54, p 0.135). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13234, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13235
    28 Oct 2026, 17:27 UTC

    LRP12

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLRP12 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1c9d14d47e3e2801

    discovery+0.54 p=0.135 n=9

    replication+0.35 p=0.349 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.54, p 0.135)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    62f8995911d135973fc808c5…
    follows 9482197488de…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13235: LRP12 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.34 (p 0.167, n 18), 95% CI -0.15 to +0.70. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.33 (p 0.182, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.36 (p 0.137, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.26 to +0.51, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.34 (p 0.167, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LRP12 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.