Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13230

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.46, p 0.214). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13229, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13230
    28 Oct 2026, 17:19 UTC

    COX6C

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCOX6C in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc0523df44427fa33

    discovery+0.46 p=0.214 n=9

    replication-0.37 p=0.334 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.46, p 0.214)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    42b03dd94c2e5121ebb103a9…
    follows 9df61d4dd76c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13230: COX6C in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.11 (p 0.658, n 18), 95% CI -0.37 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.01 to +0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for COX6C in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.