Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13202

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.840). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13201, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13202
    28 Oct 2026, 16:43 UTC

    CPT1C

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCPT1C in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd9f607ce32fd59fd

    discovery-0.08 p=0.840 n=9

    replication+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.840)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    325945fe834ce2c866411de0…
    follows a81e3ef31ef3…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13202: CPT1C in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.867, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.671, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.15 to +0.11, sign flips 10; without severely affected donors +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CPT1C in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.