Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13191

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.244). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13190, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13191
    28 Oct 2026, 16:26 UTC

    MEGF8

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMEGF8 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf4386fcf0901630f

    discovery-0.43 p=0.244 n=9

    replication-0.32 p=0.397 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.244)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    205ebb89d248150e35d63b3b…
    follows 25375ec0acdc…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13191: MEGF8 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.095, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.08. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.42 (p 0.080, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.61 (p 0.0067, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.095, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MEGF8 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.