Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13189

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.41, p 0.273). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13188, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13189
    28 Oct 2026, 16:24 UTC

    SURF1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSURF1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf94d27a5a14b5567

    discovery-0.41 p=0.273 n=9

    replication-0.19 p=0.631 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.41, p 0.273)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9be1f5ff3cffd7d47ada2b6b…
    follows c41babba40fc…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13189: SURF1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.45 (p 0.062, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.02. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.44 (p 0.064, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.43 (p 0.075, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.64 to -0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.45 (p 0.062, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SURF1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.