Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13186

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.665). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13185, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13186
    28 Oct 2026, 16:18 UTC

    SGTA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSGTA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered56b36fc543905a4c

    discovery-0.17 p=0.665 n=9

    replication+0.09 p=0.820 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.665)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    636d4cf92201d2f1743b8ecb…
    follows a61f5e4052e7…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13186: SGTA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.754, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.14 (p 0.573, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.24 to +0.03, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SGTA in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.