Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13184

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.891). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13183, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13184
    28 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC

    PGD

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPGD in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered07f66837be34a9fd

    discovery-0.05 p=0.891 n=9

    replication-0.54 p=0.132 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.891)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    766dd222e0e6d1c2721a8ada…
    follows 064061a49aa0…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13184: PGD in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.567, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.35. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.30 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PGD in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.