Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13180

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.705). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13179, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13180
    28 Oct 2026, 16:10 UTC

    ENOSF1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionENOSF1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered85874f915af43a0d

    discovery+0.15 p=0.705 n=9

    replication-0.42 p=0.262 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.705)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    407cd81c0b676c322e830a8b…
    follows 653acb5f933d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13180: ENOSF1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.15 (p 0.561, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.369, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.27 to -0.01, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.15 (p 0.561, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ENOSF1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.