Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13168

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.93 p 3.2e-4; held-out +0.14 p 0.714). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13167, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13168
    28 Oct 2026, 15:56 UTC

    OSBPL11

    microglia, braak

    predictionOSBPL11 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered35bbb48d4c1c4988

    discovery+0.93 p=3.2e-4 n=9

    replication+0.14 p=0.714 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.93 p 3.2e-4; held-out +0.14 p 0.714)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    8ee05e15b8ed545ad5665bb2…
    follows 594b5bda911f…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13168: OSBPL11 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.51 (p 0.032, n 18), 95% CI +0.05 to +0.79. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.64 (p 0.0044, n 18). holds up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.60 (p 0.0080, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.44 to +0.72, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.51 (p 0.032, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for OSBPL11 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.