Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13164

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.928). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13163, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13164
    28 Oct 2026, 15:50 UTC

    GPR26

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGPR26 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcdb7749705684867

    discovery+0.04 p=0.928 n=9

    replication-0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.928)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2f04a7910652c1dd751c58c5…
    follows 290066094969…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13164: GPR26 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.567, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.35. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.538, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.36 (p 0.145, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GPR26 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.