Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13159

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.168). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13158, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13159
    28 Oct 2026, 15:44 UTC

    ZMYM4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZMYM4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredefd7a02087bece63

    discovery-0.50 p=0.168 n=9

    replication-0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.168)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    680dbadfff326366db224154…
    follows a4b6917235f6…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13159: ZMYM4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.32. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.33 to -0.08, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.63 (p 0.0047, n 18) vs -0.17 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZMYM4 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ZMYM4 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.40 p 0.155 (needs p < 1.7e-4)