Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13132

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.57, p 0.108). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13131, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13132
    28 Oct 2026, 15:07 UTC

    KAZN

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionKAZN in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddd8d6f93f4403c8d

    discovery-0.57 p=0.108 n=9

    replication-0.47 p=0.204 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.57, p 0.108)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3c382483f13af300758b18c5…
    follows 3ac3d00916ce…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13132: KAZN in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.49 (p 0.038, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.03. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.45 (p 0.062, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.53 (p 0.024, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.67 to -0.43, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.49 (p 0.038, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KAZN in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.