Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13124

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.946). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13123, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13124
    28 Oct 2026, 14:56 UTC

    TIA1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTIA1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0717326a9e6c8041

    discovery+0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    replication+0.40 p=0.284 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.946)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    26aedf2cdd11b0b3eae7c889…
    follows 313072498353…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13124: TIA1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.487, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.20 (p 0.424, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.53 (p 0.024, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.06 to +0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TIA1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.