Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13119

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.493). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13118, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13119
    28 Oct 2026, 14:51 UTC

    MC4R

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMC4R in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1135ec2abb23450c

    discovery+0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    replication-0.06 p=0.875 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.493)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    611aba228705e170a12a4437…
    follows 2c33526c8c0b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13119: MC4R in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.02 (p 0.935, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.11 (p 0.671, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.14, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MC4R in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.