Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13117

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.893). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13116, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13117
    28 Oct 2026, 14:48 UTC

    FABP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFABP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3a061a7ea0f302f8

    discovery+0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    replication-0.18 p=0.635 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.893)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bfa7d5617a28cb4d35f9396e…
    follows 7c136347fb87…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13117: FABP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.08 to +0.15, sign flips 12; without severely affected donors +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FABP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.