Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1311

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.599). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1310, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1311
    17 Oct 2026, 19:48 UTC

    TAF1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTAF1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered22cb5bd2a3b66f3d

    discovery-0.20 p=0.599 n=9

    replication+0.34 p=0.373 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.599)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    baea4b9c388f8296472358bc…
    follows 282142b7784e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1311: TAF1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.07 (p 0.787, n 18), 95% CI -0.41 to +0.52. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.19 (p 0.439, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.05 to +0.23, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TAF1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.