Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13098

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.385). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13097, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13098
    28 Oct 2026, 14:20 UTC

    RALGPS1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRALGPS1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede4940deb8047f2cc

    discovery-0.33 p=0.385 n=9

    replication-0.56 p=0.116 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.385)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d1b46756f19b093097c6ba54…
    follows e5fc51a785e8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13098: RALGPS1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.254, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.27 (p 0.273, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.53 (p 0.024, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.254, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RALGPS1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.