Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13088

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.911). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13087, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13088
    28 Oct 2026, 14:07 UTC

    RGS8

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRGS8 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc366323b0e835d3a

    discovery+0.04 p=0.911 n=9

    replication+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.911)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d88e5217334584f4ac4caf29…
    follows 2151d3745632…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13088: RGS8 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.11 (p 0.652, n 18), 95% CI -0.37 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.01 to +0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RGS8 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.