Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13080

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.55, p 0.125). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13079, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13080
    28 Oct 2026, 13:56 UTC

    CPB2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCPB2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7be9e57eb4524d40

    discovery+0.55 p=0.125 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.784 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.55, p 0.125)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bc6dd42ee88f5fd0d871701b…
    follows 24a1fcb3a1f7…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13080: CPB2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.37 (p 0.132, n 18), 95% CI -0.12 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.41 (p 0.091, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.43 (p 0.075, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.29 to +0.48, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.37 (p 0.132, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CPB2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.