Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13074

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.41, p 0.267). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13073, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13074
    28 Oct 2026, 13:47 UTC

    DPM2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDPM2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredca03b8ad08eec663

    discovery+0.41 p=0.267 n=9

    replication-0.46 p=0.214 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.41, p 0.267)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bc36648b2969e2627dde4466…
    follows dcf5ce545bc4…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13074: DPM2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.677, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.27 to -0.02, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.11 (p 0.677, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DPM2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.