Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13068

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.493). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13067, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13068
    28 Oct 2026, 13:39 UTC

    MGRN1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMGRN1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered52176aa1431432d4

    discovery-0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    replication-0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.493)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b6e0e001ba10531ed3c8e460…
    follows 71f768cc4460…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13068: MGRN1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.38 (p 0.120, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.11. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.41 (p 0.091, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.42 (p 0.080, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.38 (p 0.120, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.61 (p 0.0075, n 18) vs -0.38 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MGRN1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up MGRN1 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.57 p 0.041 (needs p < 1.7e-4)