Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13046

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.893). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13045, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13046
    28 Oct 2026, 13:12 UTC

    ENTPD8

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionENTPD8 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb8c38fbacaee402c

    discovery+0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    replication-0.53 p=0.145 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.893)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    98aac5a984eb32b68693622f…
    follows 70dcb068958a…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13046: ENTPD8 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.22 (p 0.374, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.27. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.36 (p 0.142, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.11, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ENTPD8 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.