Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13038

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.753). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13037, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13038
    28 Oct 2026, 13:01 UTC

    HPD

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHPD in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2870d3d00ebbff88

    discovery-0.12 p=0.753 n=9

    replication-0.54 p=0.133 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.753)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d5292efe862d1d68b68ca370…
    follows 1f799b2b887c…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13038: HPD in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.232, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.33 (p 0.182, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.45 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HPD in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.