Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13036

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.581). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13035, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13036
    28 Oct 2026, 12:58 UTC

    MAP2K3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMAP2K3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered76f18d7ccf083dff

    discovery-0.21 p=0.581 n=9

    replication-0.69 p=0.040 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.581)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1f27872ec139a5779e57f166…
    follows e5f154ef9a65…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13036: MAP2K3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.40 (p 0.097, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.08. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.46 (p 0.056, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.39 (p 0.114, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.40 (p 0.097, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAP2K3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.