Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13034

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.45, p 0.230). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13033, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13034
    28 Oct 2026, 12:55 UTC

    CMAS

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCMAS in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered694eabedb5c2c5f9

    discovery+0.45 p=0.230 n=9

    replication+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.45, p 0.230)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a97199a6c77aea55a0821211…
    follows f1acd9a99972…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13034: CMAS in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.28 (p 0.258, n 18), 95% CI -0.21 to +0.66. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.31 (p 0.218, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.19 to +0.47, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CMAS in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.