Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13031

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.265). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13030, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13031
    28 Oct 2026, 12:52 UTC

    PLSCR4

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionPLSCR4 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7d42ab2701caf0b6

    discovery-0.42 p=0.265 n=9

    replication+0.33 p=0.386 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.265)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c64cfb4be61af5871f105131…
    follows 3b8de4876ba7…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13031: PLSCR4 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.976, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.671, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.11 to +0.15, sign flips 9; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PLSCR4 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.