Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13013

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.174). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13012, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13013
    28 Oct 2026, 12:28 UTC

    NNAT

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNNAT in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered821e7544ddebaf51

    discovery-0.50 p=0.174 n=9

    replication+0.20 p=0.613 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.174)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    15dc288d3461d1dc67e3b586…
    follows 6791663a0073…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13013: NNAT in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.18 (p 0.482, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.32. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.31 to -0.10, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NNAT in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.