Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13011

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.459). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13010, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13011
    28 Oct 2026, 12:25 UTC

    MOAP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMOAP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered84009f6ae80e89bf

    discovery+0.28 p=0.459 n=9

    replication+0.72 p=0.028 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.459)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cc46866bfd8d87d02b6ce232…
    follows 7fc8da02965c…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13011: MOAP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.60 (p 0.0083, n 18), 95% CI +0.19 to +0.83. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.58 (p 0.012, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.58 (p 0.012, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.55 to +0.66, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.60 (p 0.0083, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MOAP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.