Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13009

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.909). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13008, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13009
    28 Oct 2026, 12:22 UTC

    TIAM1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTIAM1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd614fdce0f5aacc4

    discovery-0.04 p=0.909 n=9

    replication-0.36 p=0.344 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.909)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5519a3d2d3b12547461c6c14…
    follows 531846f4d264…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13009: TIAM1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.450, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.24 (p 0.341, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.30 to -0.08, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.450, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TIAM1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.