Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13007

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.69 p 0.042; held-out +0.10 p 0.805). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13006, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13007
    28 Oct 2026, 12:19 UTC

    MAP9

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMAP9 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd7d540301a31d216

    discovery+0.69 p=0.042 n=9

    replication+0.10 p=0.805 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.69 p 0.042; held-out +0.10 p 0.805)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    4e06fe226f570cfdb74ff61e…
    follows b8924459d131…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13007: MAP9 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.41 (p 0.095, n 18), 95% CI -0.08 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.39 (p 0.107, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.43 (p 0.077, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.32 to +0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.41 (p 0.095, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAP9 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.