Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13000

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.812). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12999, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13000
    28 Oct 2026, 12:11 UTC

    FAM107A

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionFAM107A in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2718b40085695160

    discovery-0.09 p=0.812 n=9

    replication-0.90 p=0.0011 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.812)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6f86dcd8756f340beb8ace35…
    follows 77e6d4da7eb2…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13000: FAM107A in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.36 (p 0.142, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.13. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.39 (p 0.114, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.48 to -0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.36 (p 0.142, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FAM107A in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.