Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12994

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.893). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12993, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12994
    28 Oct 2026, 12:03 UTC

    PSMD6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPSMD6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered542d7bd9eaabe12b

    discovery-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    replication+0.15 p=0.701 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.893)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8fc916156196fdf922fb5699…
    follows 40a4986fbf9e…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12994: PSMD6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.06 to +0.17, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PSMD6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.