Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12988

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.859). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12987, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12988
    28 Oct 2026, 11:54 UTC

    GSTM5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGSTM5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered190dc3a71336d147

    discovery-0.07 p=0.859 n=9

    replication-0.57 p=0.108 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.859)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    779c8a4f1a6209bc8f357c58…
    follows 86f875cfce74…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12988: GSTM5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.33 (p 0.188, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.46 to -0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GSTM5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.