Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12983

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.52, p 0.155). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12982, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12983
    28 Oct 2026, 11:46 UTC

    MAP2K2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMAP2K2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5ce3f7585195b120

    discovery-0.52 p=0.155 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.775 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.52, p 0.155)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    482afbc574fb22f16cdf9a93…
    follows ba4af44fc0b6…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12983: MAP2K2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.969, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.09 to +0.13, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.72 (p 8.2e-4, n 18) vs -0.01 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAP2K2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up MAP2K2 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.15 p 0.594 (needs p < 1.7e-4)