Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12966

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.802). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12965, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12966
    28 Oct 2026, 11:24 UTC

    TAAR5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTAAR5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered55a788228456e778

    discovery-0.10 p=0.802 n=9

    replication-0.33 p=0.385 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.802)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    946cf4cd97b6dd0185686d15…
    follows 425687eb5ee8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12966: TAAR5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.34 (p 0.167, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.15. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.49 to -0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.34 (p 0.167, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TAAR5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.