Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12963

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.768). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12962, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12963
    28 Oct 2026, 11:18 UTC

    SLC30A1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC30A1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered391905feea35cf90

    discovery+0.12 p=0.768 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.907 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.768)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0f5cb3e553d980df7af88fc7…
    follows 846b6c870f87…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12963: SLC30A1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.722, n 18), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.573, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.04 to +0.20, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.722, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC30A1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.