Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12959

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.714). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12958, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12959
    28 Oct 2026, 11:12 UTC

    OGFOD1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionOGFOD1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9b21445e97eec8a9

    discovery+0.14 p=0.714 n=9

    replication+0.12 p=0.756 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.714)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6ff4b732d35428d8e9173b27…
    follows daee3e1bfd8f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12959: OGFOD1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.11 (p 0.652, n 18), 95% CI -0.37 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.671, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.591, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.00 to +0.26, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for OGFOD1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.