Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12957

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12956, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12957
    28 Oct 2026, 11:10 UTC

    TAAR2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTAAR2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddede21f3ebd22048

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication-0.30 p=0.430 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0b1531d11f492f3a2a335950…
    follows a4b38778465f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12957: TAAR2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.741, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.18 to +0.03, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.741, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TAAR2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.