Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12953

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.224). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12952, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12953
    28 Oct 2026, 11:04 UTC

    EID2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEID2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8f51f62f1ed70a11

    discovery-0.45 p=0.224 n=9

    replication+0.71 p=0.031 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.224)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8081a0c32668f2ca95130929…
    follows 890d9a64e8dc…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12953: EID2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.13 (p 0.603, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.08 (p 0.741, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.02 to +0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.13 (p 0.603, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EID2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.