Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12951

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.718). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12950, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12951
    28 Oct 2026, 11:01 UTC

    APMAP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAPMAP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered52722b5e8eec3096

    discovery-0.14 p=0.718 n=9

    replication-0.58 p=0.102 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.718)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d094f071b284a301cc89b6c6…
    follows 27eaf2e268f3…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12951: APMAP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.32 (p 0.191, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.17. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.26 (p 0.298, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.47 to -0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.32 (p 0.191, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for APMAP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.