Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12943

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.222). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12942, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12943
    28 Oct 2026, 10:50 UTC

    MELTF

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMELTF in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered665e112065daf33e

    discovery-0.45 p=0.222 n=9

    replication-0.37 p=0.321 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.222)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f6d1068649a3b2dcc329b0f7…
    follows 0af9a1bc9dd3…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12943: MELTF in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.48 (p 0.042, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.02. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.48 (p 0.042, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.46 (p 0.054, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.65 to -0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.48 (p 0.042, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MELTF in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.