Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12930

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.508). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12929, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12930
    28 Oct 2026, 10:33 UTC

    CLEC10A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCLEC10A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda3d3723ee5f95182

    discovery+0.25 p=0.508 n=9

    replication-0.24 p=0.530 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.508)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0c98a8c53ccee92c8c427fda…
    follows beb7068deb2f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12930: CLEC10A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.02 (p 0.942, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.15 to +0.08, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors -0.02 (p 0.942, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CLEC10A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.