Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12922

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.86 p 0.0031; held-out -0.38 p 0.316). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12921, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12922
    28 Oct 2026, 10:22 UTC

    AMOTL2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAMOTL2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1ddbf8a6ba48bc86

    discovery-0.86 p=0.0031 n=9

    replication-0.38 p=0.316 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.86 p 0.0031; held-out -0.38 p 0.316)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    6d91aa900d9f7d4990e54193…
    follows 34d5b4988cb9…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12922: AMOTL2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.58 (p 0.013, n 18), 95% CI -0.82 to -0.15. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.69 (p 0.0014, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.71 (p 9.6e-4, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.75 to -0.52, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.58 (p 0.013, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AMOTL2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.