Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12913

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.66, p 0.053). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12912, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12913
    28 Oct 2026, 10:11 UTC

    LMBR1L

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLMBR1L in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8998b25f0c654870

    discovery-0.66 p=0.053 n=9

    replication-0.36 p=0.348 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.66, p 0.053)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4627d46cb5ab9fcab0710724…
    follows 1d4966e02a99…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12913: LMBR1L in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.56 (p 0.015, n 18), 95% CI -0.82 to -0.13. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.59 (p 0.011, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.71 (p 8.7e-4, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.65 to -0.52, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.56 (p 0.015, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.71 (p 0.0011, n 18) vs -0.56 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LMBR1L in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up LMBR1L · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.00 p 1.000 (needs p < 1.7e-4)