Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12911

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.20, p 0.599). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12910, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12911
    28 Oct 2026, 10:08 UTC

    NCAPG2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNCAPG2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede7102a3b411d4f57

    discovery+0.20 p=0.599 n=9

    replication-0.54 p=0.135 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.20, p 0.599)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    330e0f8d1baf374b3c41421d…
    follows 59b7c3e0e4e8…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12911: NCAPG2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.46 (p 0.055, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.01. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.42 (p 0.080, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.019, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.55 to -0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.46 (p 0.055, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NCAPG2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.