Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12907

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.873). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12906, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12907
    28 Oct 2026, 10:03 UTC

    NBL1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNBL1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb6c1c7241fb9f103

    discovery-0.06 p=0.873 n=9

    replication-0.02 p=0.965 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.873)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    07636d84551d7d185f5022ec…
    follows ee99796e79a6…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12907: NBL1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.908, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.44. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.14 to +0.09, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: +0.62 (p 0.0060, n 18) vs -0.03 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NBL1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up NBL1 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.43 p 0.131 (needs p < 1.7e-4)