Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12902

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.50, p 0.173). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12901, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12902
    28 Oct 2026, 09:57 UTC

    PDZK1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPDZK1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered681917cd648a0ff3

    discovery+0.50 p=0.173 n=9

    replication-0.35 p=0.361 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.50, p 0.173)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    611b5411719c272ff84fa4ac…
    follows 8145bf6678bf…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12902: PDZK1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.05 (p 0.834, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.04 to +0.16, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PDZK1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.