Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12899

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.912). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12898, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12899
    28 Oct 2026, 09:55 UTC

    RFFL

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionRFFL in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6cc136983d341255

    discovery-0.04 p=0.912 n=9

    replication-0.29 p=0.457 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.912)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4de669a74e86847b15f0f173…
    follows ec8e384f4686…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12899: RFFL in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.298, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.34 (p 0.173, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.32 to -0.04, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RFFL in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.